New-Vehicle Sales To Jump 5.4 Percent In October, According To Kelley Blue Book

10/27/2014

Rising Incentive Spend Reveals Slowing in Growth from Recent Years; Jeep Cherokee Driving Fiat Chrysler Success

IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 5.4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.27 million units, resulting in an estimated 16.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  October is typically the second weakest month of the year for sales, only above January.  Many consumers take advantage of Labor Day deals in September, or wait for Black Friday and other holiday sales in the coming months.

Kelley Blue Book Logo

"One cause for concern is the rising levels of incentive spend in the industry, which in recent months has drifted close to an average of $3,000 per vehicle," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "The ratio of incentive spend to average transaction prices is at its highest since 2010, but remains below pre-recession levels.  Since inventory levels have remained consistent, this isn't a red flag quite yet, but it does underline that the natural industry growth we've had in recent years is slowing."      

Key Highlights for Estimated October 2014 Sales Forecast:

  • In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,270,000 units, up 5.4 percent from October 2013 and up 2.2 percent from September 2014.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2014 is estimated to be 16.3 million, up from 15.3 million in October 2013 and even with 16.3 million in September 2014.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of volume in October 2014, down from 85 percent in October 2014.

Jeep Cherokee Driving Fiat Chrysler Automobiles' Impressive Growth

The newly minted Fiat Chrysler Automobiles should enjoy another strong month in October with expected growth approaching 20 percent.  Once again, the majority of its growth is attributed to the Jeep Cherokee, which launched late last year.  If you exclude the Jeep Cherokee, Fiat Chrysler's impressive growth in 2014 drops from 14.7 percent to 5.2 percent. 

Nissan North America also is expected to post double-digit growth, making great strides this year in the small car segments, which is especially notable considering there isn't much strength in these segments.  The Versa is up 20 percent, while subcompacts are up 4.5 percent, and the Sentra has increased 44 percent, while compact cars are only up 1.7 percent.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Oct-14

Oct-13

YOY %

Oct-14

Oct-13

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

236,000

226,402

4.2%

18.6%

18.8%

-0.2%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

185,000

191,267

-3.3%

14.6%

15.9%

-1.3%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

179,000

168,976

5.9%

14.1%

14.0%

0.1%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

167,000

140,083

19.2%

13.1%

11.6%

1.5%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

120,000

114,538

4.8%

9.4%

9.5%

-0.1%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

102,000

91,018

12.1%

8.0%

7.6%

0.5%

Hyundai-Kia

99,000

93,309

6.1%

7.8%

7.7%

0.0%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

46,000

44,692

2.9%

3.6%

3.7%

-0.1%

Total 3

1,270,000

1,205,176

5.4%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

           

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

3 Includes brands not shown

           

Big Gains Expected for Domestic Pickups as Ford Manages Remaining F-Series Inventory

Models like the Toyota RAV4, Subaru Forester and Nissan Rogue are expected to help compacts SUVs remain the industry's fastest growing segment.  As a result of consumers opting for these small utility vehicles, market share for compact and mid-size cars will continue to fall.    

"As Ford is forced to manage their inventory of the F-Series, we wonder if Fiat Chrysler and General Motors will make the most of the market opportunity," said Gutierrez.  "Big gains are expected from the RAM pickup and solid numbers should be reported for both the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra."    

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Oct-14

Oct-13

YOY %

Oct-14

Oct-13

YOY %

Mid-Size Car

180,000

172,199

4.5%

14.2%

14.3%

-0.1%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

174,000

164,372

5.9%

13.7%

13.6%

0.1%

Compact Car

166,000

160,699

3.3%

13.1%

13.3%

-0.3%

Compact SUV/Crossover

159,000

139,904

13.6%

12.5%

11.6%

0.9%

Entry-level Luxury Car

67,000

68,123

-1.6%

5.3%

5.7%

-0.4%

Total 2

1,270,000

1,205,176

5.4%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

           

2 Includes segments not shown

           

There are 27 sales days in October 2014, compared to 27 sales days in October 2013.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, visit www.kbb.com/media/, follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/kelleybluebook (or @kelleybluebook), like our page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/kbb, and get updates on Google+ at https://plus.google.com/+kbb.

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)

Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for three consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company.

Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121108/LA08161LOGO

To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-vehicle-sales-to-jump-54-percent-in-october-according-to-kelley-blue-book-306408458.html

SOURCE Kelley Blue Book

For further information: Chintan Talati, 949-267-4855, chintan.talati@kbb.com; Joanna Pinkham, 404-568-7135, joanna.pinkham@kbb.com; Brenna Robinson, 949-267-4781, brenna.robinson@kbb.com

SHARE THIS NEWS

Read more like this

Cox Lot Vision Provides Dealerships with Clear View of Vehicle Inventory
Cox Automotive
Cox Lot Vision Provides Dealerships with Clear View of Vehicle Inventory

02/13/2020

Dealers can locate and manage entire fleet from the palms of their hands. 

CMG to Sell Ohio Newspapers to Cox Enterprises
Cox Enterprises
CMG to Sell Ohio Newspapers to Cox Enterprises

02/13/2020

Sale will allow Dayton Daily News, the Springfield News-Sun, and the JournalNews to continue printing...

Cox Business to Deliver the Ultimate Connected Fan Experience at Allegiant Stadium
Cox Communications
Cox Business to Deliver the Ultimate Connected Fan Experience at Allegiant Stadium

01/30/2020

Cox Business will provide Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas with the fastest optical internet service...